KUBANSKA (1962) I UKRAJINSKA KRIZA (2022) – SVET NA IVICI NUKLEARNOG RATA, 60 GODINA KASNIJE
Apstrakt
Rad se bavi poređenjem Kubanske raketne krize (1962) i Ukrajinske krize (2022) kao slučajevima u kojima je čovečanstvo bilo najbliže izbijanju svetskog nuklearnog rata. Prvo je dat osvrt na pojam međunarodne krize, a zatim su sa osloncem na odabrane kriterijume analizirani Kubansku kriza i stvarnost koja je nastala invazijom ruskih oružanih snaga na Ukrajinu 24. 2. 2022. Posebno su obrađeni međunarodnopravni aspekti ovih problema, s tim da je ukazano da za razliku od američke vojnopomorske blokade Kube, u razmeštaju sovjetskih raketa na tom ostrvu nije bilo ničeg protivpravnog, pa su SAD ipak bile spremne da ratuju samo da bi otklonile pretnju. U slučaju Ukrajinske krize (2022) sve je daleko komplikovanije. Premda se na prvi pogled tu radi o agresiji, Rusija se pozvala na omiljene argumente i koncepcije SAD, kao što su humanitarna intervencija i preventivna samoodbrana. U zaključnim razmatranjima istaknuto je da prema važećem međunarodnom pravu svi međunarodni sporovi i krize moraju se rešavati isključivo mirnim sredstvima, da Ukrajinska kriza ne bi smela biti u tom pogledu nikakav izuzetak, te da je, uostalom, dobar primer Kubanska raketna kriza koja je okončana jednom vrstom sporazuma.
Reference
References
Allison, G. & Zelikow, P. 1999. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Longman.
Chayes, A. 1974. The Cuban Missile Crisis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Global Nuclear Arsenals Grow as States Continue to Modernize – New SIPRI Yearbook out Now, SIPRI, 14 June 2021. Available at: www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/global-nuclear-arsenals-grow-states-continue-modernize-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now (7. 10. 2022).
Ignatius, D. 2022. To Confront Putin, Byden Should Study Cuban Missile Crisis. Washington Post, September 22, 2022, Available at: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/22/putin-ukraine-threats-biden-cuban-missile-crisis/ (7. 10. 2022).
Kahan, J.H. & Long, A.K. 1972. The Cuban Missile Crisis: The Study of Its Strategic Context. Political Science Quarterly, 4, pp. 564-590, https://doi.org/10.2307/2148197.
Korb, L. & Cimbal, S. 2022. Why the War in Ukraine Poses a Greater Nuclear Risk than the Cuban Missile Crisis. Just Security, April 12 2022. Available at: www.justsecurity.org/81040/why-the-war-in-ukraine-poses-a-greater-nuclear-risk-than-the-cuban-missile-crisis/ (7. 10. 2022).
Krivokapić, B. 2017. Mir i rat u međunarodnim odnosima i pravu. Beograd: Institut za uporedno pravo : Poslovni i pravni fakultet Univerziteta "Union - Nikola Tesla".
Krivokapić, B. 2020. Pravo naroda na samoopredeljenje i slučaj Kosova. U: Čavoški, K. (ur.), Secesija sa stanovišta unutrašnjeg i međunarodnog prava i njene političke posledice. Beograd, SANU, pp. 203-256.
Morrison, R. 2020. A Cuban Missile Lessons for the Russia-Ukraine War. Providence, April 8, 2022. Available at: https://providencemag.com/2022/04/cuban-missile-crisis-lesson-russia-ukraine-war-john-f-kennedy-joe-biden/ (7. 10. 2022).
Ralston, S.J. 2022. Are the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Cuban Missile Crisis Comparable?. Statecraft and Global Affairs, April 27. Available at: https://medium.com/statecraft-and-global-affairs/are-the-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-the-cuban-missile-crisis-comparable-74bd540b5400 (7. 10. 2022).
Rogers, K. & Sanger, D.E. 2022. Biden calls the ‘prospect of Armageddon’ the highest since the Cuban missile crisis. New York Times, 6 October 2022. Available at: www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/world/europe/biden-armageddon-nuclear-war-risk.html (7. 10. 2022).
Scott, L. & Hughes, G.R. 2015. The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Critical Reappraisal. Teylor & Francis, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470670590.wbeog615.
Sherwin, M.J. 2012. The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50: In Search of Historical Perspective. Prologue Magazine, 2. Available at: www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2012/fall/cuban-missiles.html (7. 10. 2022).
Tovish, A. 2015. The Okinawa Missiles of October. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, October 25, 2015. Available at: https://thebulletin.org/2015/10/the-okinawa-missiles-of-october/ (7. 10. 2022).
White Mark, J. 1995. The Cuban Missile Crisis. Palgrave Macmillan, https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230374508.
Documents
Aggression against Ukraine, Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 2 March 2022, A/RES/ES- 11/1. Available at: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3965290 (7. 10. 2022).
Annan, K. 2004. A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility. Report of the Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, UN doc. A/59/565.
Joint Statement on Six Months of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine, Delegation of the European Union to the United Nations in New York, 24. 8. 2022. Available at: www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/un-new-york/joint-statement-six-months-russia%E2%80%99s-full-scale-invasion-ukraine_en?s=63 (7. 10. 2022).
